Mornington Peninsula Updates

It is hard to believe that we have just stepped out of lockdown 4.0 and, at the time of writing, into yet another one 5.0, and that the first half of 2021 has now been put to bed. We experienced one of the busiest Summer markets ever on the Peninsula with extreme buyer demand, overflowing into Autumn, and now Winter, with buyers patiently waiting on the sidelines for the stock to come.

Holiday-goers from all over Victoria discovered the reason we call the Mornington Peninsula home by exploring the amazing attractions from the renown vineyards throughout Red Hill and Main Ridge, our pubs and restaurants with sensational seasonal food on offer, and finally relaxing and exploring the best that Port Phillip Bay has to offer from bayside beaches to the rugged ocean coastline.

We’ve observed an increased demand for holiday homes since international travel has been temporarily suspended. The ability to generate short term rental income, while also having personal use, coupled with the lowest interest rates in history, has made the prospect of holiday homes and weekenders on the Mornington Peninsula even more attractive than usual. Demand across the entire state, if not country, has been consistently strong since last October. The only momentary dips occurring during a snap lockdowns or school holiday periods as depicted in the REA Insights Weekly Demand Index – Buyers’ report below.

Demand on the Mornington Peninsula is at an all time high for many of the reasons that we have highlighted, and that the fact that many of us are now willing to prioritise a better lifestyle balance that we’ve discovered whilst our movements have been restricted. With this comes an extremely strong demand for stock which has seen days on market reduced to levels that we have not experienced before.

Quite simply, it is a one-dimensional market where sellers mostly hold the power. I will touch on a few examples of this below in the local reports. Properties that have an aspirational aspect are the most sought after. For example, a view of the water or a walk to the beach, a tastefully renovated or staged home that exhibits wow. These types of properties are moving so fast that agent quotes cannot keep up with the rising prices.

Now is the perfect time to engage with BuyerX and plan a strategy for your next move, to avoid rushing into a decision under pressure when opportunities next arise.

Below is an overview of the major million-plus markets on the Peninsula, with apologies to some of the fringe areas which are not featured below (please get in touch for my assessment of these markets if you are interested).

The extreme buyer demand and depth “around the hill” has not waivered in 2021. A consistent days on market figure hovering around 28 days, largely due to unseasonably low stock levels, and the lack of international travel forcing would-be travellers to find their own escapes in the country-side. Hobby farms are now prized possessions and 50% more expensive now than pre-covid in some cases at the low end. We saw incredible auction results coming into the finish of last year, and that continued into 2021 with strong results and buyer depth.

A spattering of 6-7M off market and private sales by Kay & Burton occurred in Flinders and Red Hill in classic streets such as Paringa and Keys roads, and in Main Ridge the $8.5M sale of “Patterdale” with touches by Stephen Akehurst. The big one though, was the much anticipated cutting edge luxury “Horizon” in Flinders overlooking Bass Strait built by the Williams Group and sold to an international buyer via Rob Curtain of Sotheby’s for over $20M.

The entry point into acreages, if you can find it, sits around $2.5-3M now. There is just a real lack of motivation from sellers to part with their piece of dirt. Another active market are the ocean/water front homes, where we saw 6 The Esplanade, Flinders sell under the hammer for Andrew Hines of Kay & Burton. The executors auction which fetched $3.55M, well over the reserve, for an original condition cabin style beach shack on some 800sqm of land.

I asked Andrew Hines for his thoughts on the market and he told me “There is no doubt that the Western Port side of the Mornington Peninsula has experienced growth and demand unlike anything we have seen before. Part of the drive for buyers is the changes they would like to make to their lifestyles given the changes people experienced with the way they live with the Covid lockdown, the idea of being able to move around your property with space and fresh air has tugged at a lot of people’s emotions. You couple that with the idea of getting your family around you by having a family getaway and the restrictions on travel and not being able to get overseas or interstate have driven the desire for people to have a place to getaway. We are one hour away from Melbourne, surrounded by amazing country side, beach’s and an amazing amount of incredible places to dine. With the increased demand and low supply we have seen prices lift between 10-20% over the past 6 months from small properties to acreage properties. The strength of the market has been evidenced with the numbers of bidders at Auctions over the past 6 months, the Auctions are back and proving to be very successful. Two notable Auctions were 6 The Esplanade in Flinders where we exceeded the vendors expectations with multiple bidders for an un renovated house with views over Western Port. Another notable Auction was 90 Seamists Drive Arthurs Seat, a small rural property on seven acres. We were blown away with the number of people inspecting and we were very pleased for our vendors again with a result above the expectations.”

The strength is there in the southern end of the market, however the further you venture from Blairgowrie into Sorrento and then finally into Portsea there is lack of stock coming onto the market to meet the number of buyers on the sidelines.

Stock levels are always fairly low in the colder months in Portsea, but just as Sorrento and Blairgowrie are also experiencing lower than normal levels, Portsea is also half the listing volume as we’re used to seeing.

Similar conditions in Portsea as there are in Sorrento with the days on market hovering consistently around 26 days. A few overhanging sales of very long listings greater than 500 days were mopped up this year, and others that came to market have moved within the first few weeks.

The majority of the recent sales have been between $2-5M with a few other big ones on Pt Nepean and Wildcoast roads between $9M and $12M. Speaking of Wildcoast Rd, the Tintagel farm subdivision which failed to sell at $25M as one large parcel three years ago, was subdivided into 8 vacant blocks, listed by Hamish Opray of Peninsula Sotheby’s and auctioned in the last week of June for a combined total of circa $50M. Incredible buyer depth to have such competitive bidding at such a high level across so many lots on the same day.

Early into 2021, we also saw a huge price achieved with Rob Curtain of Sotheby’s private auction of 3 Franklin Rd, the clifftop home on an acre of land, fetching a whopping $22.2M – nearly $6M over the published reserve.

I recently caught up with Hamish Opray and he was kind enough to share his opinion of the market in the southern end, “Demand certainly hasn’t slowed throughout 2021 so far in our key markets. We continue to see competitive bidding from our traditional downsizers, young families re-evaluating their requirement to be located in the city and a number of expats still showing interest from abroad with intentions of moving back home at the earliest opportunity. The global pandemic has made the southern peninsula a “year-round” proposition for many with working from home becoming the new normal, and buyers prioritising a coastal lifestyle, clean air and a less congested environment. Our traditional ‘off-season’ through the colder winter months has again disappeared this year with continued activity and record breaking results in both established homes and land sales. Buyers quite simply have nowhere to go with overseas travel off the table, interstate movement across borders problematic and holidaying close to home a safe bet! Stock levels across all suburbs are and will continue to be a challenge for buyers. Many vendors are staying put in these uncertain times and those that are selling are raising their expectations on price as the market continue to steam ahead.”

A low stock environment so far this year in Sorrento, with the average days on market consistently hovering around 28 days. Normally I would consider around 30 days to be a balanced market, however I believe the complexity of the current market is different in this case. Anecdotally, it is my opinion that this days on market figure is, in reality, much lower – however the lack of stock and the large buyer pool from Melbourne, counterintuitively tends to drag out the process a little. Some agents take nearly all their listings to auction and let the buyers fight it out. This sale method naturally pushes the days on market higher while the three weeks of open for inspections are conducted. Other private sale campaigns are also dragged out to allow out of town buyers ample time to inspect the properties.

Where properties go under offer as soon as contracts are ready in suburbs like Mt Martha and Blairgowrie, we’re seeing slightly less urgency from agents and buyers in Sorrento. That being said, there have been no overhanging listings that have taken a long time to sell this year in Sorrento. As it stands at the time of writing this article, there are 22 listings and only 10 of these listing have been online greater than 30 days, and only 5 of those greater than 60 days. A stark contrast to this time last year where there were 29 properties listed for longer than 180 days.

We haven’t seen this current low stock environment since Winter of 2018. In fact, we currently have less than 60% of the Winter volume of last year mid-pandemic when the real estate market was all but closed.

The average days on market in Blairgowrie is 20 days, the strongest market alongside Mount Martha in terms of buyers waiting on the sidelines for housing stock. Prices are still very strong, auctions are exceeding expectation, and listings are so low that agents are now taking holidays. I have no doubt in my mind that this will continue to be a very strong market once the Spring weather rolls in. The builder demand in this market is high, with many permits being issued on knockdown rebuild blocks for the baby-boomer Melbourne holiday home buyers wanting a new coastal luxury lifestyle property to go with their inner city down-sizer pad.

Magic man Josh Callaghan was at it again with his auction prowess selling pretty much everything he touches over expectation, and none more so than 11 Maxwell St, the Hamptons inspired home with pool close to the village fetching $2.526M. There appears to be a buyer depth ceiling above $3M, which may be challenged this Summer, however, the sales that have occurred in this airspace have generally taken 3 or more months to move. However, one property which bucked the trend above $3M, at 20 Allan St in late February, was sold by Rob Curtain of Sotheby’s International in just 17 days – a beautiful new coastal luxury home designed by Webster Architecture & Nathan Burkett Landscape Architecture.

Buyers below $1.5M who want a stroll to the front beach are now opting for fringe areas such as Rye’s Tyrone Foreshore and White Cliffs where better value for money can be found whilst still enjoying the ti-trees and relaxed feel of a Blairgowrie.

It certainly doesn’t look like the market on the Mornington Peninsula is showing any signs of slowing down. With everything that we have been through in terms of lockdowns and restrictions, it would have to take a serious economic shockwave to deter the number of out-of-town buyers we are seeing. Interest rates are still at all-time lows, the unemployment rate now sits below 5% in Victoria, and international travel is still a long way off. Despite the strong growth in the past year, there still seems to be good affordability for buyers.

We would expect the Mornington Peninsula to continue its significant growth curve for the second half especially as we head towards spring and back into the warmer weather.

Since coming out of hard lockdown at the end of October 2020, the BuyerX team on the Mornington Peninsula have bought 28 properties for clients, 9 of these have been genuine off market purchases which is an amazing effort in such challenging times.

Contact us see what we have got in the way of off-market listings in our database, there might be one that matches your search brief. Nonetheless, having a local expert on the ground, with a finger on the pulse of prices and knowing where to buy could be the difference between you being successful or missing out. Talk to us today and we will give you an honest opinion of the likelihood of what you are trying to achieve.

As we momentarily stop to gather our thoughts, and reflect on the year that will be etched in our memories forever, a sense of nervous relief and gratitude washes over many of us. We’ve been through the highs and lows of a roller coaster 12 months. Some have fared better than others, but some have lost loved ones and others have had businesses devastated or careers turned upside down. Our human spirit has continued to shine on through strength and resilience, community solidarity and an optimism that we’ve been through tough times together and have made it out the other side. Cautious that we could just as easily slip back in to where we’ve been.

There has been a monumental shift in mindset from keeping up with the Joneses, to placing more emphasis on family, lifestyle and work-life balance. This in turn has made the Mornington Peninsula one of the most desired parts of Australia to live. No longer is the 1-1.5hr commute seen as prohibitive for city workers now that the full time office desk role is less of a requirement. The mixture of country and coast, affordability, space and lifestyle, yet still being able to retain city jobs, has driven a huge surge in sea change buyers.

The other huge shift has been the demand for holiday homes since overseas travel has been temporarily suspended. The ability to generate short term rental income through airbnb and stayz, while also having personal use, coupled with the lowest interest rates in history, has made the prospect of holidays on the Mornington Peninsula even more attractive than usual.

The only problem with an increased number of buyers, is that there needs to be enough supply of homes for sale to keep the market in equilibrium. Without enough supply, the only outcome is price rises between competing buyers. Local home owners are simply not selling unless they need to, because summer is the best time of year to use the holiday house or rent it out. The year-on-year demand in Victoria is up by 71.8% which is the largest in Australia, with New South Wales second at 54.4%. You can see in the REA weekly demand insights chart below, that we’re still way above the long term average for demand, and it’s only tapering off momentarily for the Christmas break.

What is left is a stock shortage that is being largely bought by out of town buyers, without a house to put on the market once they’ve bought. Quite simply, it’s a one dimensional market where sellers hold all the power. It’s honestly like watching seagulls fight over a chip in some cases. I’ll touch on a few examples of this below in the local reports. Properties that have an aspirational aspect are the most sought after. For example, a view of the water or a walk to the beach, a tastefully renovated or staged home that exhibits wow. These types of properties are moving so fast that agent quotes can’t keep up with the rising prices.

Below is my market wrap for the year in each of the major markets on the Mornington Peninsula.

It’s a tale of the quick and the dead for A-grade homes in Mt Eliza and Mt Martha. As I wrote in my Spring 2020 review, the Mt Eliza market still slightly trails Mt Martha in terms of transaction numbers however the gap is closing and both suburbs are now in a sellers market. The good homes are selling within a week, some within a matter of days, and now that public open for inspections are allowed again, there’s lines out the front yards and up the street to get in to some of these homes. The forgotten listings from early in the year all started selling too, with properties like 20 Jackson St, 4 Craigie Rd and 4 Lea St, all in Mt Martha, finally selling for close to their asking price. Some big ones sold too, like 5 Prescott Ave with Nicholas Lynch for mid $6M’s, and 1 Barristers Lane with Warlimont & Nutt for mid $5M’s. In Mt Eliza, some big ones at 5 Denistoun Ave and 19 Watts Pde for high and mid $6M’s and a spattering of homes in Watts, Jacksons, Almeria and Glen Shian between mid $3M’s and mid $4M’s.

I spoke with Trent Cameron, Director of Warlimont & Nutt, who told me “We all know how much of a rollercoaster this year has been. During the lockdown period, we anticipated a strong return for the property market however it’s surpassed our expectations. A persistent lack of stock, increased ability for those to work from home and low interest rates have all contributed to a booming market where we are consistently selling homes for asking price and above and also off-market.”

Some notable sales from Trent’s office include the off-market at 40 Prescott Ave $3.4m (off the plan) and 1 Barristers Lane with a South Beach boat shed for $5.5m, plus recently a great result at 37 Dickinson Grove fetching $1.72m (above asking, with multiple bidders).

Confidence has returned in spades around the hill. The large properties have returned and construction has also been active again. The listed acreages have been far and few between though, and consequently the market below $6M has incredible buyer depth. The result is that properties are selling in some cases 20-30% above the expectation with some glaring results in Flinders and Main Ridge.

164 Keys Rd, a small 2-acre property with an original log cabin home and distant water glimpses. The statement of information estimated a selling range of $2-2.2M. Peter Kennett of RT Edgar performed a stellar auction whereby the opening bid was accepted at $2.4M and quickly countered at $2.6M. Two or three bidders then fought it out right up to $3,010,000.

79 Tucks Rd, a lovely 10-acre property with valley views, beautifully renovated modest home, offered by Tom Barr Smith & Meg Pell of Kay & Burton. The statement of information estimated a selling range of $4.3-4.7M. An acceptable offer triggered an auction whereby the eventual lucky bidder paid in the high $5Ms.

I spoke with Meg Pell from Kay & Burton who told me “Properties are selling quicker and at higher prices, particularly acreage Meg said. She said competition is brisk at auctions and sale prices as much as 20% or in some recent cases more than 20% over the asking price are being paid. Normally at this time of the year things are winding down a bit, but to the contrary. It really is a seller’s market at present.”

The strength is definitely there in this southern end market, however there is still a lack of stock coming to the market to meet the number of buyers on the sidelines. There was really only a dozen or so sales in Portsea in the last quarter, with homes like 92 Blair Ct in the mid $4M’s, after that a couple in the mid $3M’s and the rest between $1.5M and $3M. We saw some older listings in Sorrento eventually sell such as 12 Collins Pde for $3.2M and 3 Ozone Ave for $2.75M, both on the market over 280 days. We also saw the other end of the spectrum with 8 Aviemore, 30 Yatala, 6 Hiskens, 26 Pekina all selling in or under a week. Three or four big ones along Pt Nepean also sold above $4M.

I asked Clayton Smith of Rt Edgar for his thoughts on the year and he told me “Following a tumultuous year of uncertainty with lockdowns and travel restrictions in general, the middle of the year was all about flattening the curve and as Spring arrived, thoughts turned to where our holidays would be spent this Christmas. The easing of restrictions at the start of October saw unprecedented demand from buyers seeking a holiday home, upgrading to a larger home or a sea-change for the family with the new found flexibility of working from home becoming a reality for many. Our phones rang hot, one on one inspections were booked in 15 minute blocks as countless buyers swooped to snap up a piece of coastal paradise. In many instances properties were listed and sold within a matter of 3 or 4 days with Zoom auctions fast becoming the norm.”

Some notable sales from RT Edgar Portsea and Sorrento include 6 Hiskens St, Sorrento, a stunning Hampton’s inspired brand new 5 bedroom home with pool on just over 500sqm of land selling in excess of $3M, two single level 4 bedroom homes in Settler’s Cove Sorrento sold in a matter of days in excess of $2M, and a single level 4 bedroom home with pool near St Johns Church situated on a superb land holding in excess of 1 acre with views over the Sorrento Gold Course and Lagoon selling off-market in excess of $4M.

The standout beachside performer this year in my opinion has to be Blairgowrie, with consistently strong results on a fairly regular supply of listings. Omitted in my Spring 2020 Review, I was quickly reminded of the reason why this sleepy beachside suburb should not be overlooked. The allure of holiday homes has been the major driver of demand in this area. The Tyrone Foreshore fringe of Blairgowrie has mirrored its neighbour’s strong demand too, with affordable homes amongst the ti-tree just a stones throw to the beach and Blairgowrie shops. I’m no longer surprised with runaway sales in this location, and just when I think maybe the market is starting to ease, I’m blown away with another strong result.

An agent who is having a large impact on the market there currently is Fletchers’ Director Joshua Callaghan, who shared the following with me.

“Post lockdown 1.0 we experienced a surge in buyer demand through May & June with 70% of our 24 sales for the 8 week period having a minimum of 3 offers per property including 6 Scott Wynd, Blairgowrie which we successfully procured a sale in just 5 days for $3,125,000 which was the second highest price for a bayside location in Blairgowrie; the highest being $3,150,000 for a property we sold in November 2019 at 1-3 Head Street, Blairgowrie.

Fast forward to the recent past months post lock down 2.0 and we experienced what I would refer to as one of the most inefficient operations for real estate with the restriction imposed on property appraisals and inspections. This combination kept stock levels incredibly light and a frenzy of buyers allocated strict 15-minute inspection blocks. During this period, the method of sale employed on various properties was key to ensure Vendor’s were placed into a position of having genuine buyer competition that resulted in some excellent sale results; one during this period was a standout result at 60 Garden Street, Blairgowrie selling for almost $500,000 above the Vendor’s expectations.

As restrictions started to ease, we opted to bring then new listings in as Auction campaigns and subsequently were the first agency to engage in public Auctions which for the final week of their campaigns was in sync with the first weekend of open space numbers being completely lifted. This calculated foresight and albeit a gamble paid off big time for our Vendor’s with market changing results on one day such as 73 Garden Street, Blairgowrie selling for $1,603,000 ($683,000 above reserve), 38 Dana Ave, Blairgowrie selling for $885,000 ($165,000 above reserve), 40 Dana Ave, Blairgowrie selling for $905,000 ($185,000 above reserve).

The following weekend we took 32 Gordon Street Rye to Auction which sold for $1,300,000 under the hammer ($280,000 above reserve) and on the same day we procured 6 written offers on a property at 27 Valentine St, rye selling for $1,180,000”.

What can we expect on the Peninsula in 2021?

It certainly doesn’t look like the market on the Mornington Peninsula is showing any signs of slowing down. It would have to take a serious economic shockwave to deter the amount of out-of-town buyers we’re seeing. Prices have risen between 10 and 30 percent from Mt Eliza to Flinders to Sorrento and everything in between. It is extremely difficult to buy property at the moment, you need to be educated, decisive, have a strategy and move quickly. If you’re up in Melbourne, the odds are against you unless you’re able to drop everything at a moments notice and head down the freeway, for the next 6 months which is the average time to buy property down here.

The agents I’m speaking with all have listings ready to launch in mid-January. There will be a period like we saw as we came out of lockdown where stock was listed and snapped up in days. This is likely to happen again towards the end of January as holiday makers turn to sea-changers, and those that missed out in 2020 pick themselves up with renewed confidence and vigour. It will be strong all the way to Easter, and then after that, only time will tell. The COVID-19 vaccine will be making its way through the population of the world and international travel will soon be back on the cards. This may have a cooling effect on the market on the Peninsula, allowing transactions to return to a normal dynamic.

The past 3 out of 5 properties I’ve bought for clients have been off-market. In a rising market, this is almost impossible to do, but with relationships and local knowledge, it can be done. Contact me to see what I’ve got in the way of off-market listings in my database, there might be one that matches your search brief. Nonetheless, having a local expert on the ground, with a finger on the pulse of prices and knowing where to buy could be the difference between you being successful or missing out. Talk to me today and I’ll give you an honest opinion of the likelihood of what you’re trying to achieve. I may even be able to find and secure your dream home, just like I did in 2020 for my successful clients in the hottest market we’ve almost ever seen.

It has been an incredible rollercoaster of a year so far, with twist and turns that nobody saw coming. Despite the sad reality that there have been COVID-19 fatalities, business closures, job losses and stay-at-home orders, there has also been a strong and renewed sense of community spirit and care for each other that possibly was lacking in the past.

As predicted, the Stage 4 restrictions paused market activity just as Victorians had learned to buy and sell real estate safely and effectively in the new COVID-19 environment. As we came out of the first round of tightened restrictions, what we saw on the ground across the Mornington Peninsula was a pent-up demand for property and a shortage of quality listings. This was felt equally across metropolitan Melbourne and depicted in the REA Insights Weekly Demand Index – Buyers’ report below.

The threat of further restrictions and fear of price falls, coupled with some anxious vendors not wanting to commit to marketing campaigns, drove a large proportion of stock underground into what we call an off-market scenario. Strong agent relationships ensured that our clients were able to transact and take advantage of having representation when other buyers were left in the dark, a result of our experienced advocates understanding how to navigate difficult market conditions.

The large spike in demand from pent-up buyers in Melbourne looking to upgrade, relocate, or buy a holiday home on the Peninsula was the strongest I’ve ever experienced over a winter period. However, we still didn’t get the volume of new listings to meet the increased buyer demand, which put upwards pressure on prices and kept many buyers waiting on the side-lines.

The advice we are giving clients today is to plan for another – and possibly even faster – bounce back to the market. Be ready to take advantage of opportunities as they arise, which may occur at the tail end of this Stage 4 period.

If you’ve got finances in order and are ready to act quickly, you’ll be ahead of the curve when restrictions are eased, and the masses of buyers return to the market. Now is the perfect time to engage with BuyerX and plan a strategy for your next move, to avoid rushing into a decision under pressure when opportunities next arise.

Below is an overview of the major million-plus markets on the Peninsula, with apologies to Mornington, McCrae, St Andrews and Blairgowrie which are not featured below (please get in touch for my assessment of these markets if you are interested). I’ve also omitted August sales from these stats, as transaction activity has not been under normal conditions.

I’ve separated Mount Eliza and Mount Martha, as they tell two different stories despite being quite similar in lifestyle and demography. Buyer demand doesn’t seem to have waned in Mount Martha throughout 2020, despite the interruptions with Stage 3 restrictions.

In the last half of 2019, the market was starved of listings right up until year-end, when vendors all started to list their properties to cash in on any post-election price growth. It was as if they were waiting for a confirmation that the market had started moving upwards again.

This led to a slight over-supply in early 2020, presenting buyers with more choice. I would argue it briefly entered a buyers’ market before COVID-19 took hold and listing numbers tapered off. Still though, the number of sales hardly changed from either side of Summer and the median price has continued to rise by 8-10%.

Sam Danckert from Danckert Real Estate tells me that “the market from January-August 2020 has lacked consistency due to the interruptions of COVID-19 activity restrictions, however it is showing an intermittent positive price trend. The nexus between limited supply of quality properties (attributed to vendors lacking confidence in the market) and increased buyer demand (due to the lifestyle appeal of Mt Martha) has resulted in some positive sales occurring.

In the case of 75 Glenisla Drive, the property was purchased in 2016 for $2.85m and was listed for sale for 59 days by our agency in March 2020 at $3.5m-$3.75m. The property attracted significant interest from Melbourne based buyers looking for a luxury residence or a holiday home, and was purchased by a family from Kew as a weekender within the quoted range.”

There have been a number of other $3M+ sales in 2020 mid-pandemic, including a $5M sale of a property that had been on the market for the previous 6 months. This suggests to me that there is growing confidence from buyers and sellers alike, and the demand appears balanced as we head into a spring market.

Mount Eliza tells a slightly different story, with the market now seemingly easing somewhat off a stellar run between 2015 right up to the end of 2018, only tapering off with the fear of policy change brought by a new Federal government, which never transpired. The volume of listings in 2020 has slightly increased from the previous 6 months, but is still lower than the same time last year by around 20%. Conversely, the number of sales in 2020 has declined by 30%, which tells me that the market is currently showing better signs for buyers than sellers. A greater number of listings, and fewer number of sales.

It isn’t by any means a concern for the market as the median price has still improved, but it gives buyers more choice and is still in my opinion a balanced market, just slightly tipping toward the buyer’s favour. If listing numbers continue to grow out of line with buyer demand this spring, we will see Mount Eliza enter a buyers’ market.

The story “around the hill” is one of a lack of supply of good quality and top end properties in 2020. Typically, the season comes to life in spring and early summer for 6 months of the year along the Westernport side of the “hill” from Merricks to Flinders, remaining sleepy in the months either side.

Therefore, what we’re comparing in sales volumes and medians could be skewed with seasonality, but I’ve gone back through the data and looked at year to year comparisons to confirm my opinion on the current anecdotal feeling in the market. The big properties aren’t coming onto the market in the same volume as 2019, yet the buyers in 2020 are there in force, pouncing on anything with a decent position.

The A grade properties (with views) are being run to auction, selling above the range as we saw with 179 Point Leo Rd and recently 31 Oceanview Ave, both just shy of $4M. Other homes with small compromises are still being bought in a matter of weeks or days, as was the case with 339 Tucks Rd which sold in 2 days for the full asking price of $2.2M.

Even though the median price looks to have come off in the stats, I am not seeing this at all on the ground. In fact, I would go the other way and say prices have firmed again this year. According to Meg Pell from Kay & Burton, “in the 6 months prior to January the market in this area was healthy, and for the right property, it was and has always been strong. Stock is usually fairly tight. This year winter seemed irrelevant and we have seen huge growth in Melbourne buyers keen to make the move from the city right now, rather than in the future, for both permanent and part time living. As a result, stock has been even tighter, and prices achieved have been high. Even in Stage 4, enquiry on properties for sale remains strong.”.

Despite the stats showing that sales volumes have hardly changed, you can see that the total value of properties sold is 50% lower, not because of price falls, but because the price-point of properties on offer are not the same this year as they were last year. If you own an acreage in these areas and are thinking of selling, you’ve probably never had such a strong demand for your product than right now. This is truly a sellers’ market.

Looking back, in 2013, ‘14, & ‘15 Sorrento and Portsea saw an enormous surge in listings, with peak periods having around 75 properties in Portsea and 130 in Sorrento on the market. The average days on market per listing was also quite high, with nearly 50% of the homes on the market for over 180 days. That volume declined by 50% in 2016 and again in 2017, when the market returned to normal with listing volumes remaining steady.

Since January 2020, particularly during Stage 3 and Stage 4 COVID-19 restrictions, and taking into account the area’s seasonality, listing volumes have declined again by about 20% in Portsea, but interestingly, have remained more stable in Sorrento.

When I spoke with Samatha Moffatt of RT Edgar, she told me “after the market decline that effectively commenced around May 2018, the spring of 2019 started to look promising. We had some good results and found that the market was bouncing back. However, as spring turned to summer, there was an apparent breach in the supply and demand ratio, so the market slowed again for a short period. Then the pandemic hit and sent buyers and vendors packing, which was interestingly, only short-lived. 

After a few weeks of silence during the first lockdown, buyers began to re-emerge. These buyers were cashed up, perhaps having removed their investment in shares at the earliest hints of the virus and were keen to look at property in regional and coastal areas such as the Mornington Peninsula. Vendors are slightly more inclined to offer their properties off-market in the short term because of the uncertainty of the virus, but the fact that there are well-qualified buyers out there means sales are being secured in a timely manner for very good prices.”.

As you can see the slight dip in the number of sales across the two suburbs has also fallen in line with the volume of stock on the market, which is a healthy signal, we aren’t seeing sales and listings tracking on their own separate trends like in Mt Eliza currently. This is as much about seasonality as it is about a fundamental change in demand. What we are seeing, however, is prices holding steady or even slightly improved based on am improved demand from buyers seeking lifestyle properties in 2020. As we head into spring and summer, the listing volumes will return and so too will the buyers who are waiting patiently for their chance to purchase a holiday home.

Overall, for the entire Mornington Peninsula market, the combination of low levels of supply and the significant stimulus of historically-low interest rates will ensure that demand for properties for sale remains strong through the remainder of 2020. We expect the market to be strong right up until Christmas and into the summer holiday period along the Peninsula.

Inspections and property marketing have changed to adapt to temporary regulations which makes it harder for out-of-town buyers to locate, view and act quickly, which gives an upper hand to those with buyer representation and close relationships with the better agents.

As observed by the well-respected selling agents quoted above, the common theme is an influx of city buyers looking to get away from Melbourne, either for weekends or more permanently. As working from home is becoming the new norm, family balance and lifestyles are at the top of household priorities and the sea-change/tree-change trend is one that I expect to continue for the foreseeable future.

For those buyers who would like to understand how I operate and assist my clients to buy their piece of dirt, particularly in a post-COVID competitive market, pick up the phone or send me an email – I am only too happy to talk.

What a difference a month makes! We saw the writing on the wall with low stock levels and increased buyer demand in winter but needed confirmation it wasn’t just a knee-jerk reaction to greater Federal government stability and interest rate cuts.

September really kick-started the spring market right across the Peninsula. We saw properties that had been sitting on the market for a few months start to sell, some with appropriate price reductions and others with a change of agent and a freshened campaign.

September’s sales volume was hard to match in October and November, due to a lack of stock coming on to replace what has been mopped up. Buyers are out in numbers waiting for listings to show up in their searches, while selling agents are fielding numerous calls from buyers who can’t find anything on the market that suits their needs. You know the market is running hot when real estate agents don’t call you back!

Some of the properties that sat unsold for up to 12 months and finally did sell were 22a Morell Street Mornington by Dean Phillips of McEwing & Partners for $2.510M, on the market for 310 days; 8 Orchard Lane Mount Eliza by Jonathan Rivett of Eview Group for $1.8M, on the market for 332 days; and 19 Rockleigh Drive Mount Martha by Fergus Nutt of Warlimont & Nutt for $2M, on the market for a whopping 378 days. Some very patient vendors there.

It would also be remiss of me not to mention a couple of notable sales, “Beechwood” at 70 Bay Road Mount Martha by Trent Cameron of Warlimont & Nutt, a beautifully renovated farmhouse by renown interior designer and decorator Kate Walker. After holding out patiently for her price for four months, she appears to have gotten it from an out of town buyer. Trent has now been involved in multiple large sales in Mount Martha this year north of $4M. Lastly, the historically significant three-quarter-acre European beachside manor at 15 Marathon Drive Mount Eliza by Liz Todd of McEwing & Partners at the very top of the range of $4.05M in just a week on the market.

The scarcity of stock is now becoming a real problem. Yes, we are seeing new properties hit the market, but they are being snapped up very quickly – some in less than a week – especially homes that are priced correctly and well-styled, or rare offerings. In such an aspirational location to live, buyers need to feel that inspiration and lifestyle translate inside the home as well. In my opinion, this is more so here than anywhere else in Melbourne, so vendors – having your property styled is crucial.

Some of the properties that were snapped up quickly were 65 Fawkner Avenue Blairgowrie by Jellis Craig for $1.2M, in just 4 days; 4 Pearse Road Blairgowrie by Jacobs & Lowe for $2.25M, in 7 days; 719 Esplanade Mornington by McEwing & Partners for $2.7M, in 4 days; 11 Mount Eliza Way Mount Eliza by RT Edgar for $1.26M, in 7 days; 7 Walara Drive Mount Martha by Bonaccorde (undisclosed at the top of the range) in just 4 days; 35 Kilburn Grove Mount Martha by Warlimont & Nutt for $1.782M, in 7 days.

And let’s not leave out 14 Charlton Court Portsea and 18 King Street Sorrento, both with Kay & Burton and selling within 14 days. Most of these sales, and plenty of others just like it, have been in late October and early November. Is this a tale of things to come?

We’ve had an exceptionally cold, wet and windy start to spring, which hasn’t helped the local tourism bring in potential sea-change buyers from Melbourne. The Peninsula really starts to come into its own from now onwards, with holidaymakers coming down and holiday homes being sought. We have had a number of enquiries in November from clients about holiday home and potential Airbnb properties to purchase, from Mornington right through to Portsea.

The question on every potential vendor’s lips right now is, “have prices risen?”. We can see there are more buyers than sellers, and days on market coming right down, but are we seeing price increases?

I’m going out on limb here, but my data shows Flinders (albeit on a low sales volume) and Sorrento have recovered any 2019 falls and will potentially reach new median price highs, Portsea back to where it was at the last peak back in January, and suburbs such as Mount Eliza, Mount Martha, Mornington and Blairgowrie recovering more than half of their price falls since their last peaks.

Perhaps the difference in the market for vendors between winter and spring isn’t so much being nervous about selling, but now wanting to see new price highs before going to market. As we approach summer, the Mornington Peninsula market appears set to continue seeing strong buyer demand with low stock available to choose from.

This further highlights the need for a buyer’s advocate to uncover off-market properties and access pre-release homes before they go to market. We talk daily with our network of agents and have a database of off-market properties, ensuring you are getting access to all properties that may suit your requirements.

Please drop me an email below and start the conversation.

It is a bitterly cold 3-degree morning as I write this update on the Mornington Peninsula property market for Winter 2019.

Much like most of metropolitan Melbourne, the Peninsula property market has experienced decreased stock levels this winter which has translated to a lower number of sales and marginal price movements. Traditionally the winter months see lower levels of activity in coastal regions, and the further down the coast you go the number of lifestyle properties increase.

The positive impact on sentiment from the election result and the two recent interest rate cuts has resulted in an increase in buyers at open for inspections and we’re seeing properties that are presented well and priced correctly sell within a matter of weeks. Other properties that have been listed at last year’s prices and haven’t had a price reduction yet are still sitting unsold. Good opportunities exist for savvy buyers to put realistic offers in front of vendors who may now be bordering on desperate to sell. 

Since the school holidays, I’ve noticed a number of properties have sold, in particular, the homes around $850k-1.5m in Mount Eliza have been hotly contested and some are selling after as little as 2 weeks. There’s also been a buzz of activity in Mount Martha around the $1.5-2m price bracket with realistic vendors meeting the market. Mornington, on the other hand, has experienced a small decline in both the number of buyers and its median price since late 2018. It had been on a strong run up until that time and it will be interesting to see if spring listings can entice buyers back. We’re not seeing prices fall, but we’re not seeing prices rise either. This allows buyers to take their time and wait for the right property, or snap up an opportunistic purchase.

Mount Eliza has been the standout suburb in the northern part of the Peninsula, bucking the downward trend in price. Speaking with agents, anecdotally it seems that there’s an influx of city buyers looking to make a sea-change within a commutable distance. I wouldn’t be surprised if prices start to move in a positive direction unless we see an increase in stock, particularly if we see a further two interest rate cuts as predicted.

Nervous vendors appear to be waiting for Spring before they list their properties, as there’s still a shortage of stock in all price points listed for sale, however, we’ve got quite a few off-market properties and pre-release properties that we know about. Rather than waiting for Spring, we can show you through these prior to coming online and without the competition.

If you are considering a sea-change, looking to upgrade or downsize your home in the local Mornington Peninsula market, please get in touch for a confidential no-obligation chat.