Mornington Peninsula - Summer 2023 Property Update

Buyers market

With its close proximity to Melbourne and easy access to jobs and facilities, the Northern Tip has a higher proportion of owner occupiers to holiday homes. Because of this largely residential population it follows more of a year long cycle, as opposed to the seasonal cycles of the more isolated holiday home suburbs down the southern end.

Mount Eliza
Buyers market

Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 74
Total: $137,842,000
Median: $1,707,500
Max: $4,500,000
12 Month rolling median house: $1,750,000
Days on Market: 52

Mount Eliza’s median price was up slightly on the previous quarter, an expected change with better quality listings always coming onto the market in the shift from spring to summer. Similar to Mount Martha though, the stock levels crept up by a steady 10% quarterly increment. Days on market hit its peak for the year at 52, reflective of the absence of buyer urgency.

Only two sales above $4m were achieved for the quarter, with 8 Glen Shian Lane selling for $4.5m by Michelle Skoglund of Aqua Real Estate, and 55 Old Mornington Road for $4.1m by Coco Ma & Lloyd Hillard of Area Specialist Real Estate. The Golden Mile experienced very little activity.

Mount Martha
Buyers market

Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 55
Total: $117,650,750
Median: $1,760,000
Max: $6,500,000
12 Month rolling median house: $1,780,000
Days on Market: 50

While the median price in Mount Martha somewhat recovered from its mid-year dip, days on market remained unchanged from last quarter at 50, and numerous properties (80+) listed for greater than 60 days. Overhanging unsold properties increased as listings grew consistently at a 10% month-on-month rate, creating a concerning forward trajectory. While still not at 2011-2014 stock levels, agents may need to proactively begin adjusting listing prices to avoid this volume increasing further. There is some strength still at the top end of the market, although properties at this level are either selling off-market or taking longer than normal to sell when listed.

Trent Cameron from Warlimont & Nutt gave his overview of the market, “2022 saw the peak of the Mount Martha boom in February. From the election onwards combined with interest rate rises and increased measures in banking regulations, we found our local area return to a balanced market. In saying that, the Peninsula lifestyle continues to attract people to buy into our community”. Warlimont & Nutt achieved luxury sale success this quarter courtesy of Trent Cameron, with 59 Glenisla Drive selling for $4.8m, and 15-21 Leggatt Crescent reaching $5.7m. Other notable sales were 1 Shearwater Drive by Sam Danckert of Danckert Real Estate for $6.5m, 68 Kilburn Grove by Amanda Haimona of Impact | Bonaccorde for $4.65m, and more recently 4 Trig Point by Alex Corradi of Danckert Real Estate for $5.175M to international DJ Carl Cox.

Mornington
Buyers market

Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 74
Total: $99,923,250
Median: $1,126,000
Max: $5,025,000
12 Month rolling median house: $1,180,500
Days on Market: 46

Mornington is the Peninsula’s “Mr Consistent”, long-acting as the barometer for the Northern Tip/End. This quarter showed no clear signs of the market either rising or falling, sales volumes remained steady and, apart from the first quarter, the median price was unmoving at $1.1m-$1.2m. Average days on market were still fairly high in the mid 40’s, and listings crept up slightly, both indicating a buyers market.

A notable sale for the area, 12-14 John Rowell Lane went for $5.025m through James Redfern of RT Edgar.

Buyers market

Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 26
Total: $31,146,000
Median: $3,225,000
Max: $23,382,990
12 Month rolling median house: $3,200,000
Days on Market: 37

Around the Hill continued to assert its autonomy by slightly bucking the trend of the rest of the Peninsula with a positive spring/early summer market. As a whole, it experienced three times the sales achieved throughout winter, seasonally expected as acreage markets tend to kick into gear at this time. Unlike its counterparts, Flinders and select parts of Shoreham attract buyers no matter the market or economy. Median price held firm, and average days on market were comparatively healthy in the early 30’s. More stock than expected for this time of year, but there was still relative strength there for vendors to list with confidence.

Two very notable sales occurred in Flinders on Musk Creek Rd, one technically identified as Punty Lane but sharing Musk Creek Road frontage. Both sold by Sotheby’s, the first garnered a $12m price tag. The second was hands down my favourite home of the year, a luxury farmhouse at 261 Musk Creek Rd, and attracted a purchase price in excess of $23m. A property at 9 Old Cottontree Rd sold by Kay & Burton, and 101 Meakins Rd by RT Edgar, both touched $5m.

Buyers Market

While the Southern End picked up minimally coming out of winter, Sorrento still only achieved 23 sales this quarter. While the last six months of 2021 brought in 62 sales, the last 6 months of 2022 only had 36, a significant 50% drop on number of sales. The median price for this same period was 20% less. So the market was conclusively weaker with strong buying opportunities, particularly for those in the market for land offerings or renovator delights. Buyer activity was primarily in the $3m-$4m bracket, brand new or 5-10 year old offerings that did not require work, had wow factor or were well located. Sorrento’s days on market was stable in the mid-40s, while Portsea stayed similar to the last quarter markedly higher than Sorrento in the mid-60’s.

Portsea & Sorrento
Slight buyers market

Portsea Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 5
Total: $25,798,888
Median: $4,900,000
Max: $7,810,000
12 Month rolling median house: $3,425,000
Days on Market: 66

Sorrento Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 23
Total: $54,993,000
Median: $2,295,000
Max: $4,100,000
12 Month rolling median house: $2,400,000
Days on Market: 47

In Sorrento back in January 2022, 19 Ronald Avenue as a land value proposition sold at a competitive auction for $2.2m. A mere 10 months later in November a near identical land value offering on the opposite side of the road at 26 Ronald Avenue sold for $1.9M, representing a 15% discount to the buyer. On the Australia Day weekend auctions, arguably the biggest weekend of the year for Sorrento real estate, we witnessed another land offering at 35 Ossett Street, practically opposite the village with slightly larger land than those on Ronald Ave, only attract a smidge over $2m, highlighting the premium prices that buyers forked out in the post-covid buying frenzy of 2021 into 2022. Late summer has seen a flurry of larger offerings hit the market, with 3520 Point Nepean Road, Sorrento by Liz Jensen of Kay & Burton with a guide of $25m-$27.5m, 8 Leggett Way, Sorrento also with Liz Jensen and Gerald Delaney of Kay & Burton with a guide of $16.8m-$17.8m, 3049 Point Nepean Road by Max Prentice of Prentice Real Estate with a guide of $10m-$11m, and then back to Point King with 11-15 Kemp Road & 17 Point King Rd both by Rob Curtain of Sotheby’s between $7m & $8.75m.

Overwhelmingly lacking the urgency with half the volume in listings and sales expected for this time of year, only a couple of bigger sales at Paringa Road and two in Blair Road provided a welcome change to the sleepy Portsea of 2022. At $6m, $4.2m and nearly $8m respectively, briefly fluttered a little life back into the market, but that was that. January was very uneventful, save for 8 Macgregor Ave that went for $3.8m through Hamish Opray of Sotheby’s, finally selling after a couple of interrupted attempts. We still have eyes on Franklin Road, circa $10m, and McColls Way, circa $18m, both with Sotheby’s (Patrick Sinn & Rob Curtain). Plus, the new listings of 27-31 Macgregor Avenue by Andrew Hayne of Marshall White with a guide of $10m-$11m, and 32 Elizabeth Rd by Danielle Vains of Sotheby’s with a guide of $6-$6.3m.

Blairgowrie
Buyers market

Oct – Dec
# of Transactions: 29
Total: $55,971,000
Median: $1,575,000
Max: $3,725,000
12 Month rolling median house: $1,720,000
Days on Market: 35

Blairgowrie was very underwhelming through winter with only 13 sales, with a slight reprieve into the spring/early summer market of 30 sales. The average number of listings rose but were still selling well. Interestingly, the median price pulled back a little which may be due to low vendor confidence resulting in minimal good quality properties being placed on the market. This median change cannot be solely interpreted as a reflection of the actual change in value of homes, more of the lower quality properties people are currently putting onto the market.

In a sign that people are perhaps starting to get rid of their holiday homes, there were more entry level compromised properties and less builders offering prestige homes for the market. Vendors acknowledged that they could not get premium prices for their properties so good quality homes rarely made the market because they did not want to sell without strong competition. The days on market were pretty healthy, mid 30’s down from 53, showing more urgency despite the higher volume, but not unexpected given the seasonal time of year. Buyer caution was high however, with an example of this evident at a property at 124 Canterbury Jetty Road, Blairgowrie that went to auction over the Australia Day weekend which we successfully secured for a client. Two additional bidders competed, but the property ended up passing-in to us and we bought it in a post-auction negotiation. There have been quite a number of properties in Blairgowrie that did not sell under the hammer that sold afterwards, showing perhaps the market depth isn’t quite there. There were still positive results, with Danielle Vains from Sotheby’s International Realty offering her thoughts about the sale of a property at 8 Archer St, Blairgowrie for $3.481m, “A special sale late last year, this property continued our ongoing relationship with our lovely vendors throughout the build/styling process to a successful sale campaign”.